People
Stefano Merler
FellowFondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy
FellowFondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy
Fields Of StudyEpidemiology, Infectious Diseases
Stefano Merler is a mathematical modeller of infectious diseases transmission. He joined Bruno Kessler Foundation (a research center in Trento, Italy) in 1995 and now he leads the Dynamical Systems research unit. He is mainly interested in the analysis of the effects of population heterogeneity (i.e. contact patterns, demographic changes) on the spread and control of infectious diseases. He is coauthor of about 100 academic papers.
Publications
Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave
Jessica T. Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Nicola Perra, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Natalie E. Dean, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Luca Rossi, Kaiyuan Sun, Xinyue Xiong, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
Nature600, 127–132 (2021)
Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
Dina Mistry, Maria Litvinova, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Matteo Chinazzi, Laura Fumanelli, Marcelo F. C. Gomes, Syed A. Haque, Quan-Hui Liu, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Alessandro Vespignani
Nature Communications12, 323 (2021)
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions
Quan-Hui Liu, Ana I. Bento, Kexin Yang, Hang Zhang, Xiaohan Yang, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani, Jiancheng Lv, Hongjie Yu, Wei Zhang, Tao Zhou, Marco Ajelli
PLoS Computational Biology16(12), e1008467 (2020)
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Alberto Aleta, David Martín-Corral, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Maria Litvinova, Matteo Chinazzi, Natalie E. Dean, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Stefano Merler, Alex Pentland, Alessandro Vespignani, Esteban Moro, Yamir Moreno
Nature Human Behaviour4, 964–971 (2020)
Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study
Juanjuan Zhang, Maria Litvinova, Wei Wang, Yan Wang, Xiaowei Deng, Xinghui Chen, Mei Li, Wen Zheng, Lan Yi, Xinhua Chen, Qianhui Wu, Yuxia Liang, Xiling Wang, Juan Yang, Kaiyuan Sun, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Peng Wu, Benjamin J. Cowling, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
The Lancet Infectious Diseases20(7), 793-802 (2020)
Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China
Juanjuan Zhang, Maria Litvinova, Yuxia Liang, Yan Wang, Wei Wang, Shanlu Zhao, Qianhui Wu, Stefano Merler, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
Science368(6498), 1481-1486 (2020)
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Marco Ajelli, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Kunpeng Mu, Luca Rossi, Kaiyuan Sun, Cécile Viboud, Xinyue Xiong, Hongjie Yu, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Alessandro Vespignani
Science368(6489), 395-400 (2020)
Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks
Alessandro Vespignani, Yamir Moreno, Alberto Aleta, Quan-Hui Liu, Stefano Merler
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences115 (50), 12680-12685, (2018)
Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015–2016 ZIKV epidemic
Alessandro Vespignani, Luca Rossi, Piero Poletti, Diana Patricia Rojas, Dina Mistry, Stefano Merler, Kaiyuan Sun, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Qian Zhang
BMC Medicine16 / 195, (2018)
Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the continental US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic
Alessandro Vespignani, Luca Rossi, Piero Poletti, Diana Patricia Rojas, Dina Mistry, Stefano Merler, Kaiyuan Sun, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Qian Zhang
BMC Medicine16:195, (2018)
The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation
Alessandro Vespignani, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Cécile Viboud, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, Kaiyuan Sun, Qian Zhang
Epidemics22, 13-21 (2018)
The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation
Marco Ajelli, Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Stefano Merler, Laura Fumanelli, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
Epidemics22(3-12), (2017)
Spread of Zika virus in the Americas
Alessandro Vespignani, Luca Rossi, Piero Poletti, Diana Patricia Rojasc, Dina Mistry, Stefano Merler, Margaret Braya, Kaiyuan Sun, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Qian Zhang
PNAS114 ,22, (2017)
Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination
Alessandro Vespignani, Stefano Parlamento, Giovanni Putoto, Dante Carraro, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ana Pastore Y Piontti
PLoS Negl Trop Dis10(11), (2016)
School closure policies at municipality level for mitigating influenza spread: a model-based evaluation
Ciro Cattuto, Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler
BMC Infectious Diseases (2016)
Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis
Alessandro Vespignani, Natalie E. Dean, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ana Pastore Y Piontti
BMC Medicine201614:130, (2016)
Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the eff ectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis
Alessandro Vespignani, Luca Rossi, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, Dennis Chao, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Marcelo F. C. Gomes
Lancet Infect Dis15,2, 204-2011 (2015)
Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses
Alessandro Vespignani, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler
BMC Medicine11(1), 252 (2013)
Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models
Alessandro Vespignani, Vittoria Colizza, Stefano Merler, Bruno Gonçalves, Duygu Balcan, H. Hu, José J. Ramasco
BMC Infectious Diseases10:190, (2010)
Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread
Alessandro Vespignani, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, Piero Manfredi
PLoS Computational Biology8:e1002673, (2012)
Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave
Jessica T. Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Nicola Perra, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Natalie E. Dean, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Luca Rossi, Kaiyuan Sun, Xinyue Xiong, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
Nature600, 127–132 (2021)
Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
Dina Mistry, Maria Litvinova, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Matteo Chinazzi, Laura Fumanelli, Marcelo F. C. Gomes, Syed A. Haque, Quan-Hui Liu, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Alessandro Vespignani
Nature Communications12, 323 (2021)
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions
Quan-Hui Liu, Ana I. Bento, Kexin Yang, Hang Zhang, Xiaohan Yang, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani, Jiancheng Lv, Hongjie Yu, Wei Zhang, Tao Zhou, Marco Ajelli
PLoS Computational Biology16(12), e1008467 (2020)