People
Stefano Merler
FellowFondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy
FellowFondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy
Fields Of StudyEpidemiology, Infectious Diseases
Stefano Merler is a mathematical modeller of infectious diseases transmission. He joined Bruno Kessler Foundation (a research center in Trento, Italy) in 1995 and now he leads the Dynamical Systems research unit. He is mainly interested in the analysis of the effects of population heterogeneity (i.e. contact patterns, demographic changes) on the spread and control of infectious diseases. He is coauthor of about 100 academic papers.
Publications
Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave
Jessica T. Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Nicola Perra, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Natalie E. Dean, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Luca Rossi, Kaiyuan Sun, Xinyue Xiong, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
Nature600, 127–132 (2021)
Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
Dina Mistry, Maria Litvinova, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Matteo Chinazzi, Laura Fumanelli, Marcelo F. C. Gomes, Syed A. Haque, Quan-Hui Liu, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Alessandro Vespignani
Nature Communications12, 323 (2021)
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions
Quan-Hui Liu, Ana I. Bento, Kexin Yang, Hang Zhang, Xiaohan Yang, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani, Jiancheng Lv, Hongjie Yu, Wei Zhang, Tao Zhou, Marco Ajelli
PLoS Computational Biology16(12), e1008467 (2020)
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Alberto Aleta, David Martín-Corral, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Maria Litvinova, Matteo Chinazzi, Natalie E. Dean, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Stefano Merler, Alex Pentland, Alessandro Vespignani, Esteban Moro, Yamir Moreno
Nature Human Behaviour4, 964–971 (2020)
Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study
Juanjuan Zhang, Maria Litvinova, Wei Wang, Yan Wang, Xiaowei Deng, Xinghui Chen, Mei Li, Wen Zheng, Lan Yi, Xinhua Chen, Qianhui Wu, Yuxia Liang, Xiling Wang, Juan Yang, Kaiyuan Sun, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Peng Wu, Benjamin J. Cowling, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
The Lancet Infectious Diseases20(7), 793-802 (2020)
Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China
Juanjuan Zhang, Maria Litvinova, Yuxia Liang, Yan Wang, Wei Wang, Shanlu Zhao, Qianhui Wu, Stefano Merler, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
Science368(6498), 1481-1486 (2020)
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Marco Ajelli, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Kunpeng Mu, Luca Rossi, Kaiyuan Sun, Cécile Viboud, Xinyue Xiong, Hongjie Yu, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Alessandro Vespignani
Science368(6489), 395-400 (2020)
Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks
Quan-Hui Liu, Marco Ajelli, Alberto Aleta, Stefano Merler, Yamir Moreno, Alessandro Vespignani
PNAS115(50), 12680-12685 (2018)
Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015–2016 ZIKV epidemic
Kaiyuan Sun, Qian Zhang, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Matteo Chinazzi, Dina Mistry, Natalie E. Dean, Diana Patricia Rojas, Stefano Merler, Piero Poletti, Luca Rossi, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Alessandro Vespignani
BMC Medicine16, 195 (2018)
Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the continental US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic
Kaiyuan Sun, Qian Zhang, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Matteo Chinazzi, Dina Mistry, Natalie E. Dean, Diana Patricia Rojas, Stefano Merler, Piero Poletti, Luca Rossi, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Alessandro Vespignani
BMC Medicine16, 195 (2018)
The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation
Marco Aielli, Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Stefano Merler, Laura Fumanelli, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
Epidemics22, 3-12 (2018)
Spread of Zika virus in the Americas
Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Matteo Chinazzi, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Natalie E. Dean, Diana Patricia Rojas, Stefano Merler, Dina Mistry, Piero Poletti, Luca Rossi, Margaret Bray, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Alessandro Vespignani
PNAS114 (22), E4334-E4343 (2017)
Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination
Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Parlamento, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Natalie E. Dean, Giovanni Putoto, Dante Carraro, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Alessandro Vespignani
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases10(11), e0005093 (2016)
School closure policies at municipality level for mitigating influenza spread: a model-based evaluation
Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, Ciro Cattuto, Marco Ajelli
BMC Infectious Diseases16, 576 (2016)
Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis
Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler, Laura Fumanelli, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Natalie E. Dean, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Alessandro Vespignani
BMC Medicine14, 130 (2016)
Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the eff ectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis
Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Laura Fumanelli, Marcelo F. C. Gomes, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Luca Rossi, Dennis Chao, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Alessandro Vespignani
Lancet Infectious Diseases15, 2, 204-211 (2015)
Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses
Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Laura Fumanelli, Alessandro Vespignani
BMC Medicine11, 252 (2013)
Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread
Laura Fumanelli, Marco Aielli, Piero Manfredi, Alessandro Vespignani, Stefano Merler
PLoS Computational Biology8, e1002673 (2012)
Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models
Marco Ajelli, Bruno Gonçalves, Duygu Balcan, Vittoria Colizza, Hao Hu, José J. Ramasco, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani
BMC Infectious Diseases10, 190 (2010)
Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave
Jessica T. Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Nicola Perra, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Natalie E. Dean, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Luca Rossi, Kaiyuan Sun, Xinyue Xiong, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Cécile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
Nature600, 127–132 (2021)
Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
Dina Mistry, Maria Litvinova, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Matteo Chinazzi, Laura Fumanelli, Marcelo F. C. Gomes, Syed A. Haque, Quan-Hui Liu, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Alessandro Vespignani
Nature Communications12, 323 (2021)
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions
Quan-Hui Liu, Ana I. Bento, Kexin Yang, Hang Zhang, Xiaohan Yang, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani, Jiancheng Lv, Hongjie Yu, Wei Zhang, Tao Zhou, Marco Ajelli
PLoS Computational Biology16(12), e1008467 (2020)