People

Stefano Merler

Fellow

Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy

Fields of study:
Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases

Stefano Merler is a mathematical modeller of infectious diseases transmission. He joined Bruno Kessler Foundation (a research center in Trento, Italy) in 1995 and now he leads the Dynamical Systems research unit. He is mainly interested in the analysis of the effects of population heterogeneity (i.e. contact patterns, demographic changes) on the spread and control of infectious diseases. He is coauthor of about 100 academic papers.

Publications

Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave

J. T. Davis, M. Chinazzi, N. Perra, K. Mu, A. Pastore Y Piontti, M. Ajelli, N. E. Dean, C. Gioannini, M. Litvinova, S. Merler, L. Rossi, K. Sun, X. Xiong, I. M. Longini Jr., M. E. Halloran, C. Viboud, A. Vespignani
Nature (2021)

Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling

D. Mistry, M. Litvinova, A. Pastore Y Piontti, M. Chinazzi, L. Fumanelli, M. F. C. Gomes, S. A. Haque, Q. Liu, K. Mu, X. Xiong, M. E. Halloran, I. M. Longini Jr., S. Merler, M. Ajelli, A. Vespignani
Nature Communications 12, 323 (2021)

Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

J. Zhang, M. Litvinova, Y. Liang, Y. Wang, W. Wang, S. Zhao, Q. Wu, S. Merler, C. Viboud, A. Vespignani, M. Ajelli, H. Yu
Science 368/6498 (2020)

Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study

J. Zhang, M. Litvinova, W. Wang, Y. Wang, L. Yi, X. Chen, Q. Wu, Y. Liang, X. Wang, J. Yang, K. Sun, I. Longini, M. E. Halloran, P. Wu, B. Cowling, S. Merler, C. Viboud, A. Vespignani, M. Ajelli, H. Yu
The Lancet Infectious Diseases (2020)

The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation

M. Ajelli, Q. Zhang, K. Sun, S. Merler, L. Fumanelli, G. Chowell, L. Simonsen, C. Viboud, A. Vespignani
Epidemics 22 (2018)

Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks

Q. Liu, M. Ajelli, A. Aleta, S. Merler, Y. Moreno, A. Vespignani
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (50), 12680-12685 (2018)

Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the continental US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic

K. Sun, Q. Zhang, A. Pastore Y Piontti, M. Chinazzi, D. Mistry, N. E. Dean, D. P. Rojas, S. Merler, P. Poletti, L. Rossi, M. E. Halloran, I. Longini, A. Vespignani
BMC Medicine 16:195 (2018)

The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation

M. Aielli, Q. Zhang, K. Sun, S. Merler, L. Fumanelli, G. Chowell, L. Simonsen, C. Viboud, A. Vespignani
Epidemics 22 (2017)

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Q. Zhang, K. Sun, M. Chinazzi, A. Pastore Y Piontti, N. E. Dean, D. P. Rojasc, S. Merler, D. Mistry, P. Poletti, L. Rossi, M. Braya, M. E. Hallorang, I. Longini, A. Vespignani
PNAS 114 ,22 (2017)

Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination

S. Merler, M. Ajelli, L. Fumanelli, S. Parlamento, A. Pastore Y Piontti, N. E. Dean, G. Putoto, D. Carraro, I. Longini, M. E. Halloran, A. Vespignani
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 10(11) (2016)

School closure policies at municipality level for mitigating influenza spread: a model-based evaluation

C. Ciavarella, L. Fumanelli, S. Merler, C. Cattuto, M. Ajelli
BMC Infectious Diseases — doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1918-z (2016)

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis

M. Ajelli, S. Merler, L. Fumanelli, A. Pastore Y Piontti, N. E. Dean, I. Longini, M. E. Halloran, A. Vespignani
BMC Medicine 201614:130 (2016)

Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the eff ectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis

S. Merler, M. Ajelli, L. Fumanelli, M. F. C. Gomes, A. Pastore Y Piontti, L. Rossi, D. Chao, I. Longini, M. E. Halloran, A. Vespignani
Lancet Infect Dis 15,2 (2015)

Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses

S. Merler, M. Ajelli, L. Fumanelli, A. Vespignani
BMC Medicine 11(1) (2013)

Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread

L. Fumanelli, M. Ajelli, P. Manfredi, A. Vespignani, S. Merler
PLoS Computational Biology 8:e1002673 (2012)

Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models

M. Ajelli, B. Gonçalves, D. Balcan, V. Colizza, H. Hu, J. J. Ramasco, S. Merler, A. Vespignani
BMC Infectious Diseases 10:190 (2010)